Explanatory Guide to surebets
A surebet may be a good way to generate guaranteed revenue, but look out – it can be a risky method. Let’s get one thing straight. NO – surebetting is not a miracle method. NO – surebetting will not make you rich. NO – surebetting is not a fantastic opportunity you can’t afford to miss. People that say this are at best liars and at worst crooks.
For each event, there are always at least two possible outcomes. For these two outcomes, two odds are offered. A surebet is when these two odds are high enough that if you take them both, you’ll make a profit whatever happens.
A single bookmaker will never offer two odds that allow you to place a surebet. If it did, it would soon go bankrupt in the blink of an eye, without a shadow of a doubt. But the advantage of the sports betting world is that it is highly competitive. On the Internet, even if we only consider responsible bookmakers with a good reputation, there are well over a hundred of them. A hundred bookmakers... On each of these 100 websites, an employee is responsible for calculating the odds for the X vs. Y basketball match. The probability of these 100 people each arriving at the same odds is not just slim, it’s impossible. And even if we concede that this could happen, the odds will never be identical because not all bookmakers apply the same margins to them. If amongst these 200 odds (100 for X and 100 for Y) you manage to find one of each that is high enough to compensate for the other, you’ll have your surebet.
Identifying a surebet
How do you identify a surebet? At first sight, it is not always obvious, but fortunately, there is a very easy mathematical calculation that tells you whether or not you’ll come out on top whatever happens: Just divide 1 by each of the odds and add them together. If the result is less than 1, it’s a surebet.
Example for calculating a surebet with two outcomes
Los Angeles Lakers vs Chicago Bulls.
Odds for the Lakers at 1.7.
Odds for the Bulls at 2.5.
1/1.7 = 0.59
1/2.5 = 0.4
0.59 + 0.4 = 0.99
0.99 < 1
This confirms it – the bet is a surebet. Only a minor surebet, but a surebet all the same. This calculation works just as well for football-type bet with three outcomes.
Calculation for a three-outcome surebet
Liverpool vs Manchester Utd.
Liv : 1.9 X: 4 2 Man Utd: 6
1/1.9 = 0.526 1/4 = 0.250 1/6= 0.167
0.526 + 0.250 + 0.1667 = 0.943
0,943 < 1. The surebet is confirmed.
How do you distribute your stakes?
You must then determine the total amount that you’re prepared to bet. For example, 100 pounds. You will need to distribute this £100 between the three odds. This will not work if you stake the same amount on all three. You must calculate the appropriate stakes. This is even simpler than the second stage. You take the results for each of the odds (1 divided by the odds), which you multiply by the total amount chosen.
0.53 x 100 = £52.60
0.25 x 100 = £25
0.167 x 100 = £16.70.
To find these surebets, can you really face searching for the best odds for a given event, bookmaker after bookmaker? While this process may prove to be profitable, frankly it leaves a lot to be desired in terms of fun.
Drawbacks to Surebets
Here are the main drawbacks which make surebets a relatively risky activity that’s difficult to master
- You need to anticipate changes in odds before bets are placed
- You need to manage your e-wallet very carefully on Skrill or Neteller in order to distribute it between several bookmakers
- You need to take into account the bookmakers’ transaction fees when calculating profitability. A surebet isn’t profitable if you have fees of 3% to pay on your deposit.
- You need to bet with bookmakers that apply the same rules in the event of abandoned matches
- You must choose an extremely fast and reliable surebet service
If you are good enough to “overcome” these drawbacks, then YES, surebets are a good investment.